@PhDThesis{Arguello:2017:SiHiBa,
author = "Arguello, Fernanda Viana Paiva",
title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o hidrol{\'o}gica da bacia do rio Paraitinga
para an{\'a}lise das potenciais causas do evento extremo de cheia
e desastre ocorrido na passagem de ano de 2009/2010",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2017",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2016-08-30",
keywords = "inunda{\c{c}}{\~a}o, modelo SWAT, mudan{\c{c}}a de uso e
cobertura da terra, flood, SWAT model, land use cover changes.",
abstract = "Devido aos enormes preju{\'{\i}}zos econ{\^o}micos, sociais e
ambientais causados pelos eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos, o foco
deste trabalho {\'e} buscar um maior entendimento para o
fen{\^o}meno de cheia extrema ocorrido no Munic{\'{\i}}pio de
S{\~a}o Luiz do Paraitinga, Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo, na passagem
do ano de 2009/2010. Para tanto, foi utilizada uma ferramenta de
modelagem hidrol{\'o}gica de base f{\'{\i}}sica, o modelo SWAT,
com o objetivo de testar a hip{\'o}tese de que as mudan{\c{c}}as
no uso e cobertura da terra ocorridos na regi{\~a}o desde o
in{\'{\i}}cio de ocupa{\c{c}}{\~a}o teriam acentuado o efeito
da chuva intensa na bacia. Em termos metodol{\'o}gicos, a
pesquisa foi dividida em duas etapas: i)
caracteriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do evento extremo de chuva com
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a} intensidade ocorrido na passagem de ano
(2009/2010) em S{\~a}o Luiz do Paraitinga atrav{\'e}s da
an{\'a}lise de s{\'e}rie hist{\'o}rica de dados de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e vaz{\~a}o; ii) aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o
do modelo SWAT para analisara potencial influ{\^e}ncia das
mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e cobertura da terra sobre o padr{\~a}o
das descargas h{\'{\i}}dricas no Rio Paraitinga.Os resultados
mostraram que o modelo SWAT reproduziu de forma satisfat{\'o}ria
a vaz{\~a}o hist{\'o}rica de 01/01/1984 a 31/12/2011 e para o
dia do evento. O modelo tamb{\'e}m permitiu entender que a
mudan{\c{c}}a de uso e cobertura da terra de pastagem para
floresta (cen{\'a}rio 1 - C1) e de pastagem para eucalipto
(cen{\'a}rio 2 - C2) n{\~a}o poderia ter evitado a
ocorr{\^e}ncia do evento extremo de cheia do evento em
quest{\~a}o pois verificou-se ligeira diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
vaz{\~o}es simuladas dos cen{\'a}rios para o m{\^e}s de
dezembro de 2009 e especificamente para o dia do evento. ABSTRACT:
Due to the large economic, social and environmental damage caused
by extreme weather events, the focus of this research is to
understand the extreme flood phenomenon occurred in S{\~a}o Luiz
do Paraitinga (S{\~a}o Paulo State, Brazil) 2010 New Year's Eve.
Therefore, SWAT model (a physically base hydrological model) was
used in order to test the hypothesis that land use cover change
that have occurred since the beginning of the occupation period in
the region would have exacerbated the heavy rainfall effect in the
basin. Methodologically, the research was divided into two steps:
i) characterization of extreme rain event with respect to the
intensity occurred in the 2010 New Years Eve in S{\~a}o Luiz do
Paraitinga through the analysis of the rainfall and flow time
series; ii) application of the SWAT model to analyze the potential
impact of land use cover change on the Paraitinga River water
discharges pattern. The results showed that the SWAT to simulate
the extreme event of flood occurred in the passage of the years
2009/2010 reproduced satisfactorily the flow rate for the day of
the event and for the period January 1\$^{st}\$, 1984 to
December 31\$^{st}\$, 2011 (historical series). The SWAT model
also enabled to understand that the change pasture to forest
(scenario 1 - C1) and pasture to eucalyptus (scenario 2 - C2)
could not have prevented the occurrence of this extreme flood
event, considering the slight decrease in the scenarios simulated
flow for the month of December 2009 and specifically to the day of
the event. However, the simulation allowed to know the water
balance of the scenarios (C1 and C2) for comparison with the
baseline scenario.",
committee = "Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de (presidente) and Borma, Laura De Simone
(orientadora) and Renn{\'o}, Camilo Daleles and Val{\'e}rio
Filho, Mario and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Hidrologic simulation of the Paraitinga river basin for the
potential causes examination of the 2010 new year’s eve extreme
event of flood and disaster",
language = "pt",
pages = "132",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3ML4LJ2",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3ML4LJ2",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}